Introduction:
” The study of mankind is man”-Alexander Pope
The recent announcement by Boeing that it will prolong its stalemate with the machinists union suggests we and I have once again underestimated the players involved at the expense of the events unfolding. Initially, I looked at the situation and said it was at Boeing’s advantage to pay over the money with the view that orders will bring in more money. However, I never took into account that the union knew this as well. In an industry as specialized as machinery it is hard to fill with replacement workers. They were playing their card too. Their is a great danger in considering a one sided scenario, discounting players motives, or of playing to great of importance with events and not with people.
Examples:
Here are some other noticeable examples of the importance of players over events.
Wall Street Crisis 2008:
- Congress votes down initial buyout. Wall Street might think its important. Yet, no one thinks it is more important that Wshington politicians. They obviously didn’t like taking their cues from their rich friends up North. To paraphrase what Chris Matthews said about Giuliani .. “If he thinks NY is tough he is wrong Washington is a tougher town.
- Lehman goes bankrupt and the world teeters. Does humanity’s fate rest on one man’s shoulders. Not exactly, yet if hindsight is 20/20 we still might have seen this. Paulson, an ex banker and Goldman none the less, does everything he can to protect the commercial banks.
Super Bowl XXXVII (Raiders Vs. Buccaneers)
- Vegas odds puts Raiders in a good position to win. However, students of football note talent or strategy aside John Gruden, the former coach of the Raiders, is able to guess the entire playbook. The results Bucs destroy Raiders in a rout.
Implications:
We tend to think rational thinking should win out. We are told better products win. Cause and Effects follow linear paths. Yet, in fact we often fall into confirmation bias. We see what we want or expect to see going into a situation. In life it is important to note we may not how what will transpire, but we can pretty well predict how people will react in the event of them. The key is to focus on the players and not events. Events are way to complicated much of the time to make sense of. Focus on the human aspect that must react to these events. In his book Gerg Gigerenzer in Gut Feelings notes an author,again to paraphrase,” Human being are basically simple in the face of the complexity of events and situations they find themselves in.”
